Thursday, May 05, 2005

Election Update #2

The first 3 seats are in; all Labour holds. Sunderland South was first with its results for the 4th time in a row, a new record for the mad Geordies of the North East. A Labour heartland, the sitting MP Chris Mullins was returned comfortably but- and here is the interesting thing- with a reduced majority of around 12,000. The Tories picked up a 4% swing, the Liberal Democrats 3%. The eating of Labour majorities by the Liberals may not be happening. Could this thing be decided by Labour voters who stayed home?

The BBC exit poll shows a 66 seat majority for Labour if the trends are magnified nationally, about half what they had yesterday (and around what Walter Mondale predicted). With turn out around 70% it looks like the Tories made the effort to vote in large numbers while Labour stayed put. Hmm. Not enough of a difference hopefully to bring on the self-inflicted wound of a Tory government. The national swing to destroy Labour's majority in the house would need to be about 6%. Fingers crossed it didn't get there. Watch this space.

Meanwhile, my closest political affiliates the Liberal Democrats might not have the night they hoped:
Lib Dems defiant amid poll gloom
. It must be me; I did it to Nader in 2000, and Kerry in 2004.

No comments: