Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Totally Unfounded Prediction

He's not running

I don't always have the best of luck predicting the results of elections I know something about, less those in more baffling countries such as France. But fool that I am, I'm going to take a stab at prognosticating the French result after the second round on May 6th:

The Socialist Party's Segoline Royal will squeak in as France's first female president.

Here's why: despite leading most of the way and currenty running neck and neck with Royal, the Gaullist Nicholas Sarkozy (who is probably the most qualified candidate to wrench France from its malaise) will lose about 5% of his stated support in the first round to the far right Jean Marie Le Pen. I don't think Le Pen will make the second round again, but Sarkozy might have to tack further to the right on immigration etc to draw those vile know-nothings to his standard for the second round.

Le Pen is running at about 15% officially; the far left is at about 12% combined; therefore they cancel out the effect they have on the more mainstream candidates. "Third Way" spolier Francois Bayrou also draws an equal amount of support from both leading candidates. Therefore, the hidden fascists desire for the extreme right will ironically throw the election over to the Socialists, as if Sarkozy doesn't enter the second round with the lead he will be fatally damaged.

Prediction made at 7:30am, 4/17/07. Could be spot on, could be total bollocks. I'll let you know.

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